An obvious one is that, according to the World Meteorological Organization, the world has moved into an El Niño event, which generally makes it hotter. Climate systems are complex, and a number of factors could be helping inflate current temperatures. Imagine the headlines if we knew about that in real time.Ĭaveats are everywhere in science, and we need some here. A study found extreme heat killed more than 61,000 in Europe alone last year. Even though they receive less immediate attention, heat waves kill more people than fires, floods and cyclones. No, this does not mean better beach days for those of us who live at higher latitudes.

The good news from scientists is that rapid action can still make a significant difference and limit future damage If the temperature rise hits 2C we can expect these brutal heat waves every two-to-five years. This is happening when the world is, on average, about 1.2C hotter than pre-industrial times. The researchers found the run of extreme heat in China had been made 50 times more likely by the carbon pollution we have collectively pumped out. It is the brutal reality of what scientists told us would happen.Ī quick study published this week by the World Weather Attribution group suggests the heatwaves over Europe, the US and China would have been virtually impossible without human interference – that is, our burning of fossil fuels. Put another way: this is not actually worse than we expected. Similarly, the amount of sea ice around Antarctica continues to be far below previous record lows.īut Hausfather found for the planet as a whole – both on the land and sea surface – temperatures were within what most climate models projected, just at the hotter end of it. It suggests something extraordinary is happening in that part of the world. Zeke Hausfather, a US-based climate scientist and writer, calculated that the heat in the northern Atlantic Ocean has now pushed beyond what climate models predicted. That seems particularly likely for sea temperatures, where records have already been smashed. If these trends continue this may be the hottest year on record. Beijing usually has 11 days a year hotter than 35C, but has already had 27 scorchers. A heat dome in the US south-west has pushed the temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, beyond 43C for 27 days straight. The list of records broken is itself unprecedented. Across the globe, the average temperature for most days in July has been hotter than any previous day that we know of. There have been bad fires before, of course, but these have been exacerbated by what is almost certainly the hottest month on record due to the extreme northern summer.

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